FROM GUESSWORK TO GAMEPLAN

How predictive forecasting helped CHOC plan smarter, act faster, and stay ahead of cash flow challenges

With a predictive model that outperformed internal cash goals in 8 of 12 months, CHOC traded static forecasts for smarter, data-driven planning—and gained the clarity to act before shortfalls hit.
CLIENT OVERVIEW

CHOC – Boldly Raising the Bar in Pediatric Healthcare

Children’s Hospital of Orange County (CHOC), now a part of the new Rady Children's Health, is a nonprofit pediatric healthcare system with more than 350 licensed beds across its main hospital and affiliated sites. Each year, CHOC sees over 1 million patient encounters, delivering a full range of pediatric services to families across Southern California and beyond. Known for clinical excellence, innovation, and compassionate care, CHOC is recognized as a leader in children’s health.

THE CHALLENGES

Strengthening Forecasting to Support Confident Financial Planning

Like many leading healthcare organizations, CHOC faced forecasting complexities that made it harder to plan reserves, hit financial targets, and proactively address potential shortfalls.

Forecasting Gaps – Traditional methods didn’t fully reflect real-world payer behavior, seasonality, or historical patterns.

Limited Foresight – When cash shortfalls emerged, they often did so without enough warning to take corrective action.

Planning Pressure – Without a high degree of forecasting precision, aligning cash goals and reserves was more reactive than strategic.

CHOC saw an opportunity to enhance financial confidence with a more predictive, intelligent approach to forecasting.

THE SOLUTION

Predictive Cash Forecasting That Keeps Up with Reality

To bring greater clarity and control to cash flow planning, CHOC implemented VisiQuate’s predictive cash forecasting model that's built to:

Anticipate Cash Trends – Forecast expected inflows based on actual payer behavior, payment cycles, and seasonal nuances.

Flag Risks Early – Serve as a proactive “early warning system” so potential shortfalls don’t become surprises.

Empower Teams – Integrate directly into collections workflows, with claim-level predictions that help both financial and operational teams stay in sync.

This enabled CHOC to shift from static projections to a dynamic, data science driven approach that supports better decision-making across the board.

"The model doesn't just predict cash, it predicts a level of confidence for our clients, allowing them to plan smarter and react faster."

JACOB WILKINSON
SVP, Product, VisiQuate

RESULTS AT A GLANCE

67%

Of months where the model outperformed CHOC’s cash goal

Delivered more accurate forecasts in two-thirds of the evaluation period.

12%

Reduction in client forecast error during volatile periods

When client goal missed by 15.6-31%; model reduced the variance by up to 12%.

0.18%–3.33%

Variance in 3 of the 4 underperforming months

Minimal deviation, reinforcing overall model reliability.
THE RESULTS + BENEFITS

Smarter Models. Stronger Outcomes.

Outperformed Cash Goals in 8 of 12 Months

The model consistently delivered forecasts that were closer to actual cash than internal goals.

Lower Forecast Variance

More stable predictions helped CHOC plan with greater accuracy and confidence—even in dynamic conditions.

Improved Performance in Volatile Periods

In months when traditional forecasting veered significantly from actuals, the model helped close the gap:

  • July 2024 – Client goal was off by -31%. Model reduced the error by 12%.
  • August 2024 – Client goal missed by -15.6%. The model again outperformed with improved accuracy.

Reliable, Even When It Wasn’t “Perfect”

No forecasting model is flawless—and that’s not the goal. Forecasting is inherently probabilistic, and what matters most is consistency, reliability, and performance when it counts. The model outperformed CHOC’s internal goals in the majority of months, and it remained closely aligned and within acceptable ranges even when it didn’t, delivering stronger accuracy during high-volatility periods where traditional methods were struggling.

"VisiQuate’s predictive forecasting gave us earlier visibility into cash flow, helping us better align reserves, plan more precisely, and respond to risks before they escalate. It’s been a valuable tool across our financial and operational teams."

KEN BAXTER
VP, Revenue Cycle, CHOC
THE FINAL VERDICT

When finance can plan with confidence, the whole organization moves faster

With more accurate forecasts, CHOC strengthened financial planning, reduced risk, and gained clearer visibility into what’s next. Better forecasting didn’t just improve outcomes – it gave CHOC the confidence to lead with data.

Ready to forecast with confidence?

Let’s talk about how VisiQuate's predictive models can help your organization stay ahead of cash flow challenges and plan smarter – starting today. Schedule a demo >

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